California, brace yourselves! A powerful winter storm is barreling your way, threatening significant rainfall, heavy snowfall, damaging winds, and the very real possibility of flash floods. The National Weather Service is sounding the alarm, particularly for Southern California, especially areas still recovering from devastating wildfires. This isn't just another rainy day; it could be a dangerous situation. Let's break down what you need to know, but remember: forecasts are always evolving, so stay updated!
Monday into Tuesday: The Storm's Core Arrives
The brunt of the storm is predicted to slam into San Francisco and Santa Barbara counties starting Monday evening. According to Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard, Ventura and Los Angeles counties will likely feel its effects shortly after midnight. Expect lighter showers both before and after the storm's core passes through. Think of it like a freight train – the heaviest impact is in the middle, but there's still some turbulence before and after.
Rainfall could reach a peak intensity of 0.25 to 0.5 inches per hour. Coastal and valley areas could see total accumulations of 0.75 to 1.5 inches, while the mountains could get drenched with 1.5 to 3 inches. But here's where it gets controversial... forecasters are also warning about the potential for severe thunderstorms. These storms could bring even more intense bursts of rain and heavy winds capable of toppling trees and knocking out power lines. Imagine the chaos!
“The setup for the storm is similar to storms in the past that have produced thunderstorms that created pretty strong winds and even a weak tornado or two,” Kittell said. “And while it’s really hard to say for certain that this will happen over the course of the next 24 hours, it’s an appreciable risk for isolated storms to produce impacts like that.” So, while a tornado is unlikely, the possibility definitely exists.
Flood Watch: Burn Scars at High Risk
Starting at 8 p.m. Monday, a flood watch will be in effect for areas in and around recent burn scars in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties. These scars are from wildfires like the Gifford, Madre, Lake, Apache, Mountain, Post, King, Canyon, Hughes, Hurst, Kenneth, Franklin, Palisades, Sunset, Lidia, Hawk, Eaton, and Bridge fires, which burned over the last two years. The flood watch lasts until 3 p.m. Tuesday. And this is the part most people miss... without vegetation to hold the soil together, these areas are incredibly vulnerable to debris flows – a dangerous mix of mud, rocks, and water that can surge downhill with tremendous force.
The city of Los Angeles has issued evacuation warnings for some communities near burn scars from the Palisades fire, as well as the Hurst fire in Sylmar and the Sunset fire in the Hollywood Hills. The warning is in effect from 10 p.m. Monday to 6 a.m. Wednesday. Los Angeles police officers will be visiting high-risk homes to deliver these warnings, and the Los Angeles Fire Department will be increasing its staffing during the storm, according to Capt. Erik Scott, a Fire Department spokesman.
It's not just burn scar areas at risk. Forecasters also warn that flooding could occur in urban areas, places with poor drainage, and low-water crossings. Never drive through flooded areas; it only takes a few inches of moving water to sweep a car away.
A similar flood watch has been issued for burn scars in the San Bernardino County Mountains, Santa Ana Mountains and foothills, and inland areas of Orange County, starting late Monday and lasting until Tuesday afternoon. These include scars from the Bridge, Line, Apple, El Dorado, and Airport fires that burned over the last five years. Rainfall rates in these areas could reach 0.3 to 0.7 inches per hour.
Wind Advisory for the High Desert
For much of the high desert, including Apple Valley, Lucerne Valley, the San Gorgonio Pass near Banning, the Antelope Valley, and the Morongo Basin, a wind advisory is in effect until 11 p.m. Tuesday. Expect gusts of up to 45 mph. Secure any loose objects in your yard, as these winds can easily turn them into projectiles.
Central Coast and Sierra Nevada: Snow and Rain
Farther north, along the Central Coast and in the Central Sierra, the heaviest part of the storm is expected to hit from 11 p.m. Monday through 5 a.m. Tuesday, according to Emily Wilson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Hanford.
Snow levels are predicted to drop to 6,000 feet, with accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from 7,000 to 8,000 feet and 1 to 2 feet above 9,000 feet. At lower elevations, expect hourly rain rates of 0.2 to 0.3 inches per hour. A flood watch is in effect from 5 p.m. Monday through Tuesday afternoon for rural and mountainous areas like Camp Nelson, Coarsegold, Oakhurst, Kernville, Fish Camp, Lake Isabella, North Fork, Auberry, Bass Lake, and Yosemite Valley. A winter storm warning is in effect until 5 p.m. Wednesday for some communities near Yosemite National Park and Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks, as well as on the Eastern Sierra slopes.
Tuesday into Wednesday: Clearing Skies, Cooling Temperatures
By Tuesday afternoon, the worst of the storm is expected to be over, although some showers may linger. Cooler temperatures are expected throughout the state, lasting into Thursday, followed by a warming trend.
Freeze Watch for the Owens Valley
The first freeze of the fall season is expected for the Owens Valley, with overnight lows dropping to between 27 and 32 degrees. A freeze watch is in effect through Wednesday morning for Bishop, Independence, Lone Pine, and Olancha. Protect any sensitive plants from the cold.
This storm has the potential to cause significant disruptions and even danger. Are the evacuation warnings enough, or should they be more widespread? Do you think Southern California is adequately prepared for the increased risk of flooding due to recent wildfires? Share your thoughts and concerns in the comments below! Remember to stay informed, stay safe, and look out for your neighbors.
