Imagine a seismic shift in America's political landscape, where traditional party lines blur and unexpected alliances emerge—right in the heart of a single state. New Jersey's dramatic transformations during the 2024 presidential election aren't just headlines; they're setting the stage for intense battles in this year's governor race and raising profound questions about the future of voting patterns across the nation. If you're curious about how local communities could redefine national politics, keep reading—this is just the beginning of a story that's reshaping democracy as we know it.
New Jersey showcased some of the country's most striking coalition changes in the 2024 election. These developments are now influencing the fiercely contested gubernatorial election this year and sparking nationwide debates about the direction of similar neighborhoods in upcoming votes.
To start, the surge in support for President Donald Trump among nonwhite voters in the New York City metropolitan region shocked many in the political arena. Yet, there's lingering doubt about whether Republicans can maintain this alliance over the long haul. And this is the part most people miss: it's not just about one election—it's about testing the durability of these new voter groups.
A deep dive into town-level election data from New Jersey, combined with insights from the U.S. Census Bureau, paints a vivid picture of the demographic and geographical areas where Democrats and Republicans have seen their fastest growth in recent contests. By comparing shifts from 2012—the last presidential election without Trump as a candidate—a clear trend of evolving party loyalties comes into focus.
Trump's appeal skyrocketed in crowded, predominantly nonwhite, once-thriving industrial hubs like Paterson, Perth Amboy, and Passaic within the NYC metro zone. Republican gains that had been building gradually since 2012 exploded in 2024, drawing in diverse communities that were previously out of reach.
Conversely, Democrats are gaining momentum in New Jersey's coastal resort areas, upscale suburbs filled with highly educated professionals, and spots favored by those in retirement.
These locales are poised to serve as vital testing grounds in the years ahead, examining if this 12-year political reconfiguration can endure beyond Trump's influence. But here's where it gets controversial: political personalities can sway outcomes dramatically. Take Republican Jack Ciattarelli's 2021 gubernatorial run, which resulted in a neck-and-neck finish—but with a voter base that starkly contrasted (as detailed in this NBC News article) from the one that rallied for Trump in 2024. Is this a sign of lasting change, or just a temporary trend tied to one leader? That's the billion-dollar question many are debating.
The central query for future elections is whether these changes mark a permanent overhaul of state and national politics or a fleeting phenomenon centered on Trump. These communities offer a real-world lab to uncover the truth.
The biggest shifts toward Democrats
Biggest shifts since 2012
Over half the residents of this quaint, all-residential beach community of just 331 people, nestled 2 miles south of the NJ Transit's Jersey Shore train's endpoint, are employed in finance or management roles. The percentage working from home here—45%—far exceeds the state's 13% average, reflecting a modern lifestyle shift. With a mean household income of $484,326 and the average price of the 10 homes sold in 2024 hitting $4.8 million, it's a picture of prosperity. For beginners wondering about economic trends, this highlights how remote work is booming in affluent areas, potentially influencing political priorities on housing and taxes.
This spot remains a Republican stronghold, but not as dominantly as before Trump's era, illustrating a drift among wealthier, educated voters toward the left. It's a fascinating example of how economic success can correlate with shifting ideologies—do you think financial security leads to more progressive views?
This area is best known to locals for its iconic shopping destination, The Mall at Short Hills, which debuted in 1961 with the slogan “5th Avenue in the Suburbs.” Today, it lives up to that promise, with a mean household income of $512,637—second highest in the state. Among adults aged 25 and over, 60% possess advanced degrees, topping the charts for places its size. Asians comprise 38% of the population, with Indians making up half of that group, adding to the community's diversity and global flavor.
Biggest shifts since 2016
This small coastal town sits at the southernmost point of the Jersey Shore peninsula. While most shops and eateries are in the nearby larger Cape May city, just a 10-minute drive east, this primarily residential enclave has a notably older demographic, with a median age of 70.9. Home values average $1.4 million, ranking among South Jersey's top spots. To help newcomers understand, think of it as a serene retirement haven where ocean breezes meet stable property values—perfect for those planning their golden years.
Situated along the Delaware River in western New Jersey, Frenchtown is a charming riverside village and a hotspot for day trippers, famous for its art galleries, boutiques, and the scenic 70-mile Delaware and Raritan Canal trail that starts just north, attracting walkers and cyclists. A narrow bridge links it to rural Bucks County in Pennsylvania, a key player in that state's politics. One in 10 residents works in arts, design, entertainment, sports, or media—the second-highest in the state. (Notably, “Eat, Pray, Love” author Elizabeth Gilbert once resided here and ran a shop.) Adults with college degrees or higher make up 41% of the population, surpassing the state's 27% average. This blend of creativity and education makes it a magnet for Democrats—perhaps because artistic communities often champion progressive causes?
Biggest shifts since 2020
Avalon has been a wealthy coastal retreat for decades: comedian Ed McMahon frequently praised his weekends there on “The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson.” Now boasting the state's fifth-oldest populace with a median age of 74.1, the average home sale price last year was $2.8 million. It's a prime example of how retirement communities are evolving politically.
This South Jersey retirement enclave, developed between 1971 and 1986, now houses 2,255 homes with a median age of 72.5. Expanding on this, it's a model of planned communities that cater to active seniors, with amenities that support independent living—raising questions about how aging populations might vote on healthcare and social services.
The biggest shifts toward Republicans
Biggest shifts since 2012
This industrial district lies beneath the massive Gov. Alfred E. Driscoll Bridge, the world's widest at 15 lanes, offering easy access to the Garden State Parkway, I-95, and the Outerbridge Crossing to New York. This attracts major logistics firms like FedEx and Wakefern Food Corp. (owners of ShopRite). Once dominated by Polish and Hungarian immigrants, it has seen explosive Latino growth—rising from 38% in 2000 to 71% in 2020, the third-highest in the state. The mean household income is $91,696, below the statewide $140,299. For beginners, this shows how immigration and job opportunities in warehousing can reshape neighborhoods economically and politically.
A new 5-acre riverside park opened this year in this compact riverside town, marking a revival of its industrial past near Newark. The former site of the Clark Thread Company, once America's top thread producer, is being redeveloped. Two-thirds of residents are Hispanic/Latino, with many non-citizens speaking Spanish at home. It hosts the largest Peruvian and fifth-largest Ecuadorian communities in the U.S. by percentage— a testament to global migration patterns influencing local votes.
Biggest shifts since 2016
Home to the state's sixth-largest Latino community, 73% of Passaic's 70,000 inhabitants are Hispanic or Latino, including the biggest Mexican population. This immigrant-heavy, working-class city sees 33% of adults without high school diplomas, versus 9% statewide. As you venture south from downtown toward Passaic Park, you'll encounter a significant Orthodox Jewish community; while exact religious stats aren't municipal, Passaic likely ranks high in Orthodox Jews statewide. The 2021 opening of Brook Haven Mall, dubbed the “largest kosher shopping mall in the U.S.,” underscores this. For a relatable example, imagine a place where cultural diversity— from Mexican heritage to Jewish traditions—fuels a Republican surge; does this challenge stereotypes about immigrant voting?
New Jersey's fourth-largest city, Elizabeth, is a bustling transit center for the NYC area, featuring portions of Newark Liberty International Airport and Port Newark-Elizabeth Marine Terminal, one of the world's busiest container ports. The Goethals Bridge connects it to Staten Island. Over half the residents are foreign-born, and two-thirds speak Spanish. Much like East Newark, it's a hub of international flavors and economic activity.
Biggest shifts since 2020
Perth Amboy's distinctive clay soil once fueled its role as an East Coast leader in terra-cotta manufacturing (check out this video for a visual tour), adorning buildings from Manhattan's Woolworth to Flatiron. The Depression ended that era, but the city reinvented itself. Today, it's 81% Latino—the third-highest in the state—with half of that group Dominican, one of the densest concentrations nationwide. This evolution from industry to immigrant stronghold mirrors broader U.S. demographic changes.
As New Jersey's third-largest city, Paterson is a true mosaic of cultures. It has the biggest Dominican community outside NYC and Lawrence, Massachusetts, plus Little Lima's huge Peruvian enclave. Mayor's declarations have hailed it as the U.S. “capital of Palestine” due to its sizable Palestinian and Muslim populations, likely exceeding a third of residents. Yet, it's transitioning: 25% live in poverty, with elevated crime rates. This mix sparks debate—is a diverse, struggling city more likely to swing conservative, or does economic hardship drive progressive demands?
Adam Noboa
Adam Noboa serves as a producer at NBC News alongside Steve Kornacki.
What do you think—will these shifts in New Jersey signal a new era of political realignment across America, or fade away post-Trump? Do you agree that immigrant communities are leaning Republican, or is that a misconception? Share your thoughts in the comments; let's discuss the future of our democracy!
